FIREFIRE Decision LabPlan a life your portfolio can sustainLog in

Your plan, across all 24 strategies

What should you invest in for the retirement you want?

Enter what you expect to have at retirement and what you need each month. We compare every strategy we’ve tested using those numbers, then show the complete evidence below.

Your answer

Three strategies that best matched your goal in our tests.

Change any number above

With $250,000 at retirement, $2,500 of monthly spending, and a 30-year timeline, these are the most reliable result and two distinct alternatives.

Portfolio at retirement$250,000in today’s dollars
You want to spend
$2,500 / month
Money must last
30 years
Starting withdrawal
12.0% / year
Highest Historical Survival

SPY-guarded QQQ

54% of paths in the tougher test paid every withdrawal and finished with money left.

Highest historical survival result among the 23 strategies you can run without automation, but it remained below 95%.

Direct fund history: 2001–2026. Historical stress test, not a forecast.

Median growth: 11.3%Read how it works
Alternative Below 95% Survival

SPY-guarded SMH

50% of paths in the tougher test paid every withdrawal and finished with money left.

No unused strategy reached 95% survival. This was the strongest alternative left.

Direct fund history: 2000–2026. Historical stress test, not a forecast.

Read how it works
Alternative Below 90% Survival

Graded SMH

42% of paths in the tougher test paid every withdrawal and finished with money left.

No unused strategy reached 90% survival. This was the strongest alternative left.

Direct fund history: 2001–2026. Historical stress test, not a forecast.

Read how it works

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Every strategy we’ve tested

Compare every strategy we’ve tested.

The Success summary uses your current numbers. The remaining columns keep one shared research setting, so their results can be compared directly.

Showing 24 of 24 strategies · sorted by annualized real-nav trend, highest first · 0 ranked · 0 pinned · 0 notes · changes save automatically

Your current plan changes the Success summary. Click a result label to sort. Focus this table and use the arrow keys, or scroll sideways for every history. Strategy stays visible; on larger screens, Your comparison does too.
Strategy Use the inline explanation for the rule. Open the full strategy page for its evidence, tradeoffs, and practical limits.Rank, pin, label, or write a private note. Your choices save with this workspace.Summary viewsActual 30-year historiesLong historyJul. 1926–Jun. 2026Modern technology eraJul. 1991–Jun. 2026Recent historyJul. 2001–Jun. 2026
Uses your current portfolio, spending, and timeline. The main number is the lower of the ordered-history and mixed-history funding results.A fixed research what-if that reruns each strategy after making the technology crash half as deep when it begins near the start. It is not a forecast and does not use your calculator values.The yearly trend in portfolio value after inflation, spending, and costs. At each point, the line shows the share of paths that reached at least that result. Red is negative growth and green is zero or better. The scale stays fixed from −10% to 20%; more-negative results remain at the left edge. The graph includes paths that ran out or stopped growing. P10, P50, and P90 are weaker, middle, and stronger tested paths—not minimum, average, and maximum.Each result starts a fresh portfolio in every available July from 1927 through 1996 and follows the next 30 real years without shuffling. The starts overlap, so this is historical evidence—not 70 independent forecasts.Uses the July 1926–June 2026 record and keeps market events in the order they happened. The test begins at every eligible starting month. When a 100-year path reaches June 2026, it continues from July 1926 again; timing rules use the real months that originally preceded the restarted point. Before QQQ existed, the research uses a technology-heavy stand-in.Uses the July 1926–June 2026 record rearranged in chunks averaging ten years to make 5,000 different 100-year paths. At each jump, timing rules use the real months that originally preceded the new month. This is the main mixed-history result.Uses the July 1991–June 2026 record in the order events happened. When a 100-year path reaches June 2026, it continues from July 1991 again; timing rules use the real months that originally preceded the restarted point. It includes the technology boom and crash, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID, and 2022.Uses the July 1991–June 2026 record rearranged in chunks averaging ten years to make 5,000 different 100-year paths. At each jump, timing rules use the real months that originally preceded the new month. This is the main mixed-history result.Uses the July 2001–June 2026 record in the order events happened. When a 100-year path reaches June 2026, it continues from July 2001 again; timing rules use the real months that originally preceded the restarted point. This period was unusually favorable to technology-heavy portfolios, so compare it with the longer histories.Uses the July 2001–June 2026 record rearranged in chunks averaging ten years to make 5,000 different 100-year paths. At each jump, timing rules use the real months that originally preceded the new month. This is the main mixed-history result.
SPY-guarded QQQHold QQQ when SPY beat T-bills in at least 5 of the past 12 months. Otherwise hold T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQ or T-billsHighest Historical SurvivalTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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54%54% ordered · 57% mixed95.5%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 6.1% · P50 11.3% · P90 14.5%
75.7%70 starting monthsP10 -1.8% · P50 5.4% · P90 10.2%94.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 94.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 6.6% · P50 7.9% · P90 8.9%
86.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 86.9%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.4% · P50 7.8% · P90 11.0%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 13.6% · P50 13.7% · P90 13.9%
99.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 99.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 11.7% · P50 13.7% · P90 15.7%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 11.2% · P50 11.3% · P90 11.4%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 10.0% · P50 11.3% · P90 12.5%
QQQ 12-month channelHold QQQ after it closes above the previous 12 completed month-end levels. Hold T-bills after it closes below all 12. Otherwise keep the prior position. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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0%0% ordered · 24% mixed90.4%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 3.3% · P50 9.1% · P90 12.9%
61.4%70 starting monthsP10 -5.2% · P50 3.9% · P90 9.4%70.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 70.5%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.2% · P50 6.4% · P90 8.2%
72.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 72.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.4% · P50 6.3% · P90 10.2%
99.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 99.5%
≤−10%01020%P10 11.7% · P50 11.9% · P90 12.1%
98.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 98.9%
≤−10%01020%P10 9.4% · P50 11.9% · P90 14.2%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 8.6% · P50 8.8% · P90 9.0%
99.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 99.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.2% · P50 8.8% · P90 10.2%
Drawdown-scaled QQQ recoveryHold QQQ. After a fall of at least 20%, wait for two closes above QQQ's 200-day average, then size a 2x sleeve from the drawdown depth. Exit after recovery or a failed rebound. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQRecovery leverageRead full explanation
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11%11% ordered · 36% mixed82.0%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.3% · P50 8.5% · P90 12.2%
51.4%70 starting monthsP10 -3.3% · P50 3.1% · P90 11.3%71.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 72.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 -13.9% · P50 5.5% · P90 6.9%
59.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 60.1%
≤−10%01020%P10 -16.1% · P50 4.6% · P90 9.7%
93.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 9.6% · P50 10.3% · P90 11.0%
86.1% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 89.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 -7.4% · P50 10.2% · P90 13.8%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 8.9% · P50 9.2% · P90 9.5%
96.2% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 96.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 6.1% · P50 9.1% · P90 11.4%
Graded QQQHold 100% QQQ after at least 7 of the past 12 months beat T-bills, 80% after 5 or 6, and 50% after 4 or fewer. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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3%3% ordered · 33% mixed90.0%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 1.1% · P50 8.4% · P90 11.6%
67.1%70 starting monthsP10 -3.9% · P50 4.1% · P90 8.6%81.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 82.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 -8.7% · P50 6.2% · P90 7.6%
74.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 75.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.3% · P50 6.1% · P90 9.5%
96.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 98.1%
≤−10%01020%P10 10.2% · P50 10.5% · P90 10.9%
93.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.0% · P50 10.5% · P90 13.0%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 8.2% · P50 8.4% · P90 8.6%
99.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 99.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 6.5% · P50 8.3% · P90 10.0%
QQQ recovery, maximum 1.10× exposureHold QQQ. After a fall of at least 20%, wait for QQQ to recover above its 200-day average for two closes, then temporarily raise exposure to at most 1.10 times. Return to QQQ after recovery or a failed rebound. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQRecovery leverageRead full explanation
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14%14% ordered · 34% mixed85.4%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -6.9% · P50 8.1% · P90 11.9%
68.6%70 starting monthsP10 -3.8% · P50 3.6% · P90 10.7%80.1% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 81.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 -10.6% · P50 6.1% · P90 7.3%
68.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 69.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 -12.6% · P50 5.5% · P90 9.6%
93.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 9.6% · P50 10.3% · P90 10.8%
87.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 91.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.0% · P50 10.3% · P90 13.6%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.9% · P50 8.3% · P90 8.6%
95.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.5% · P50 8.2% · P90 10.3%
Always QQQBuy QQQ, keep holding it, and sell only what you need for monthly spending. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQBuy and holdRead full explanation
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13%13% ordered · 33% mixed85.2%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -6.8% · P50 7.9% · P90 11.7%
67.1%70 starting monthsP10 -4.1% · P50 3.5% · P90 10.3%80.1% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 81.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 -10.6% · P50 6.0% · P90 7.2%
67.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 68.9%
≤−10%01020%P10 -12.6% · P50 5.5% · P90 9.5%
93.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 9.4% · P50 10.2% · P90 10.7%
88.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 91.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 -3.9% · P50 10.2% · P90 13.4%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.6% · P50 8.1% · P90 8.3%
95.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.2% · P50 7.9% · P90 10.0%
QQQ with a prefunded cash potStart with 12 months of spending in T-bills. Each month, sell up to 0.5% of the opening portfolio to refill the pot, capped at another 12 months of current spending. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQRules built around withdrawalsRead full explanation
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14%14% ordered · 32% mixed85.4%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -6.3% · P50 7.9% · P90 11.7%
68.6%70 starting monthsP10 -3.6% · P50 3.4% · P90 10.1%80.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 81.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 -10.2% · P50 6.0% · P90 7.1%
68.2% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 69.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 -11.7% · P50 5.4% · P90 9.4%
93.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 9.4% · P50 10.2% · P90 10.6%
88.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 91.5%
≤−10%01020%P10 -2.1% · P50 10.1% · P90 13.4%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.4% · P50 8.0% · P90 8.3%
95.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.0% · P50 7.9% · P90 9.9%
SPY return-consistencyHold SPY when SPY beat T-bills in at least 5 of the past 12 months. Otherwise hold T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPY or T-billsTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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8%12% ordered · 8% mixed94.9%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 4.4% · P50 7.4% · P90 9.2%
75.7%70 starting monthsP10 -2.2% · P50 4.2% · P90 6.3%91.5% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 91.5%
≤−10%01020%P10 2.5% · P50 5.6% · P90 6.4%
84.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 85.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.0% · P50 5.6% · P90 7.8%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 8.5% · P50 8.7% · P90 8.8%
99.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 99.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.4% · P50 8.7% · P90 10.0%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.3% · P50 7.4% · P90 7.5%
99.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 99.9%
≤−10%01020%P10 6.4% · P50 7.4% · P90 8.3%
90% QQQ / 10% T-billsHold 90% in QQQ and 10% in three-month T-bills. Take spending from T-bills first and restore 90/10 every 12 months. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQFixed portfolios and cash cushionsRead full explanation
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9%9% ordered · 30% mixed86.0%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -5.6% · P50 7.2% · P90 10.7%
68.6%70 starting monthsP10 -3.4% · P50 3.3% · P90 9.3%80.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 81.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.9% · P50 5.7% · P90 6.7%
69.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 70.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -10.9% · P50 5.2% · P90 8.8%
93.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 8.9% · P50 9.5% · P90 9.9%
89.1% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 92.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 2.8% · P50 9.4% · P90 12.2%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 6.7% · P50 7.2% · P90 7.5%
95.2% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 4.5% · P50 7.1% · P90 8.9%
Spending-and-trend allocationEach month, compare annual spending with the real portfolio and check whether SPY beat T-bills in at least 5 of the past 12 months. Use those two facts to choose among SPY, QQQ and T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPY, QQQ and T-billsRules built around withdrawalsRead full explanation
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3%3% ordered · 22% mixed92.2%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 2.9% · P50 6.3% · P90 8.4%
74.3%70 starting monthsP10 -1.3% · P50 4.7% · P90 6.2%87.2% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 87.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 -5.2% · P50 5.5% · P90 6.0%
81.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 81.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 -6.8% · P50 5.3% · P90 7.5%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.0% · P50 7.7% · P90 7.9%
96.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.5%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.6% · P50 7.6% · P90 9.3%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.6% · P50 6.1% · P90 6.3%
97.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 4.3% · P50 6.0% · P90 7.2%
QQQ moving-average guardHold 80% QQQ when the latest completed month-end level is above its 12-month average. Otherwise hold 40% QQQ and 60% T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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0%0% ordered · 1% mixed86.3%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -3.5% · P50 5.7% · P90 9.0%
58.6%70 starting monthsP10 -4.4% · P50 2.0% · P90 5.5%75.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 75.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 -8.0% · P50 4.5% · P90 5.6%
67.2% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 67.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -8.5% · P50 4.1% · P90 7.3%
97.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 98.1%
≤−10%01020%P10 7.9% · P50 8.3% · P90 8.5%
95.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 96.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.8% · P50 8.1% · P90 10.0%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 4.6% · P50 5.3% · P90 5.6%
94.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 94.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 2.8% · P50 5.2% · P90 6.5%
Spending-pressure SPY/QQQHold SPY while annual spending is 5% or less of the real portfolio. Between 5% and 7%, gradually replace SPY with QQQ. At 7% or more, hold 75% QQQ and 25% SPY. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPY and QQQRules built around withdrawalsRead full explanation
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8%8% ordered · 28% mixed88.1%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -0.1% · P50 5.1% · P90 7.7%
70.0%70 starting monthsP10 -1.7% · P50 3.7% · P90 6.9%82.5% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 82.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.6% · P50 4.9% · P90 5.4%
73.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 73.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.7% · P50 4.5% · P90 7.1%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 5.9% · P50 6.5% · P90 6.9%
94.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 3.7% · P50 6.5% · P90 8.6%
100.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 100.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 3.9% · P50 4.5% · P90 5.0%
95.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 1.9% · P50 4.4% · P90 6.1%
Hold SPYBuy SPY, reinvest its distributions and keep holding through every rise and fall. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPYBuy and holdRead full explanation
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2%2% ordered · 2% mixed78.8%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -6.2% · P50 4.8% · P90 7.6%
70.0%70 starting monthsP10 -2.1% · P50 3.2% · P90 6.8%79.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 80.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -7.5% · P50 4.8% · P90 5.4%
69.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 70.2%
≤−10%01020%P10 -9.1% · P50 4.3% · P90 7.1%
91.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 96.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 4.0% · P50 6.4% · P90 6.9%
85.1% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 87.1%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.4% · P50 6.3% · P90 8.5%
95.0% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 95.0%
≤−10%01020%P10 2.3% · P50 4.3% · P90 4.9%
78.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 78.9%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.2% · P50 4.1% · P90 6.0%
SPY with a signal-paused cash potStart without a pot. When SPY beat T-bills in at least 5 of the past 12 months, sell up to 0.5% of the opening portfolio each month to build at most 12 months of spending in T-bills. Pause scheduled sales otherwise. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPYRules built around withdrawalsRead full explanation
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2%2% ordered · 2% mixed78.9%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -5.9% · P50 4.7% · P90 7.5%
68.6%70 starting monthsP10 -2.4% · P50 2.9% · P90 6.4%80.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 81.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -7.2% · P50 4.7% · P90 5.3%
69.9% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 70.4%
≤−10%01020%P10 -8.8% · P50 4.2% · P90 7.0%
92.6% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 97.6%
≤−10%01020%P10 4.8% · P50 6.3% · P90 6.8%
85.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 87.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.0% · P50 6.2% · P90 8.4%
93.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 93.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 1.9% · P50 4.1% · P90 4.8%
78.5% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 78.5%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.2% · P50 3.9% · P90 5.9%
SPY moving-average guardHold 80% SPY when the latest completed month-end level is above its 12-month average. Otherwise hold 20% SPY and 80% T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPYTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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0%0% ordered · 0% mixed69.7%Shared research result
≤−10%01020%P10 -3.8% · P50 2.4% · P90 5.1%
51.4%70 starting monthsP10 -5.1% · P50 0.8% · P90 3.2%66.8% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 66.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 -4.7% · P50 2.5% · P90 3.6%
59.3% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 59.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 -6.5% · P50 2.1% · P90 4.7%
95.5% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 94.8%
≤−10%01020%P10 3.0% · P50 4.5% · P90 4.8%
89.4% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 89.3%
≤−10%01020%P10 -0.6% · P50 4.3% · P90 5.7%
65.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 65.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -1.6% · P50 1.1% · P90 2.4%
60.7% funded and growingBubble-eased what-if 60.7%
≤−10%01020%P10 -2.9% · P50 1.1% · P90 2.9%
50% SPY / 25% QQQ / 25% SMHHold 50% SPY, 25% QQQ and 25% SMH. Rebalance to those weights every month. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPY, QQQ and SMHFixed portfolios and cash cushionsRead full explanation
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4%4% ordered · 28% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
75% QQQ / 25% SMHHold 75% QQQ and 25% SMH. Rebalance to those weights every month. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.QQQ and SMHFixed portfolios and cash cushionsRead full explanation
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9%9% ordered · 41% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
75% SPY / 25% SMHHold 75% SPY and 25% SMH. Rebalance to those weights every month. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SPY and SMHFixed portfolios and cash cushionsRead full explanation
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3%3% ordered · 20% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
90% SPY / 10% T-billsHold 90% SPY and 10% three-month T-bills, spend T-bills first and rebalance once every 12 months. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.90% SPY / 10% T-billsFixed portfolios and cash cushionsRead full explanation
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1%1% ordered · 1% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
Graded SMHHold 100% SMH after at least 7 of the past 12 months beat T-bills, 80% after 5 or 6, and 50% after 4 or fewer. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SMHAlternative Below 90% SurvivalTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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42%55% ordered · 42% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
S&P 500 dip trades5 variants of one rule: where the money waits between trades, with or without the SPY guardStock dip trading rulesCompared, not recommended: Needs a program that places daily limit orders across the S&P 500; record starts July 2004.Read full explanation Best-placed variant in this sort: QQQ between trades. Expand to compare all 5.
SMH 12-month channelHold SMH after a new 12-month high. Hold T-bills after a new 12-month low. Otherwise keep the prior position. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SMHTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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2%2% ordered · 25% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
SMH moving-average guardHold 80% SMH after two completed month-end levels above their 10-month averages. Otherwise hold 20% SMH and 80% T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SMHTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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7%13% ordered · 7% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
SPY-guarded SMHHold SMH when SPY beat T-bills in at least 5 of the past 12 completed months. Otherwise hold T-bills. Open the complete explanation for the historical evidence and practical limits.SMHAlternative Below 95% SurvivalTrend and defensive rulesRead full explanation
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50%52% ordered · 50% mixedNot available in this comparisonNot available in this comparison.Not available in this comparisonNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shownNot shown
How to read the two kinds of evidence

Your success summary is recalculated from your projected retirement portfolio, monthly spending, and timeline. The later columns preserve one shared research setting. That makes those columns comparable across rows, but they are not a second calculation of your personal dollar amounts.

“Not available” means that strategy was not part of the shared comparison for that column.