This includes both long gains and an 81% deepest fall.
Can holding QQQ fund my early retirement?
Strategy in short: Buy QQQ, keep holding it, and sell only what you need for monthly spending.
Retirement answer: In these tests, Always QQQ funded 30 years in at least 95% of both sets of histories at a 2.1% starting annual withdrawal—$875 a month from $500,000. This is a historical threshold, not recommended spending.
Return comparison: $10,000 grew to $166,246 in QQQ. It needed to reach $20,240 to keep its starting purchasing power.
Growth of $10,000 — logarithmic scale
Always QQQ had a deepest fall of 81.1%. The inflation line shows the amount needed to preserve purchasing power.
See what QQQ's growth and crashes meant for spending
QQQ supplied strong long-run growth and several falls large enough to turn the same monthly spending into a much heavier burden.
The investor remained fully invested through the deepest fall of 81%.
Always QQQ$166,246-81.1% deepest fall
Amount needed to keep pace with inflation$20,240needed to preserve purchasing power
April 1999 through June 2026. Distributions are reinvested. The calculation charges 0.10% of each risky asset bought or sold. There are no withdrawals in this graph. Equal percentage moves take equal vertical space. Past results do not predict future results.
Can QQQ support taking out money every month?
Always QQQ grew much faster than inflation, but its long-run average could not be withdrawn safely every year.
The problem is timing. Monthly withdrawals force shares to be sold during deep falls, leaving fewer shares to benefit from the recovery.
Why the average return is not a safe withdrawal rate
$875 a month from a $500,000 portfolio.
Shares sold during a fall are gone before the recovery.
What funded at least 95% of both history tests?
Always QQQ supported a 2.1% starting annual withdrawal for 30 years: 325 ordered starts and 4,773 of 5,000 mixed histories funded every withdrawal.
These are historical thresholds, not recommended spending amounts or a promise of future success.
Test if Always QQQ can fund your early retirement with your own numbers
Enter your portfolio, monthly spending, and how long the money needs to last.
$2,500 a month for 30 years starts at 6.0% of the portfolio each year.
Always QQQ funded this early retirement in most histories tested.
327 starting months; the fund's record repeats in order when needed
- Always QQQ
- 247 funded
5,000 histories built from 8–12-year pieces
- Always QQQ
- 3,812 funded
A path funded the goal only if it paid every inflation-adjusted monthly withdrawal for 30 years. Results use the nearest 0.1 percentage-point starting withdrawal rate. They reuse one 27-year market record and are not a probability about your future.
How the FIRE calculator works
The calculator applies the portfolio value, monthly withdrawal, and number of years you enter. The first withdrawal occurs before the first month's return, and later withdrawals rise with U.S. inflation. A history counts as funded only if it pays every monthly withdrawal for the full period and finishes above zero.
One result begins at each of the 327 months in the fund record and follows that record forward in order, returning to its first month when more months are needed. The other builds 5,000 longer histories from linked 8-, 10-, and 12-year pieces of the same record. The calculation charges 0.10% whenever QQQ is bought or sold and excludes personal tax.
At every repeated or rearranged join, market signals use the real observations that preceded the incoming historical month. Portfolio value, withdrawals, inflation and strategy state continue without resetting.
Strategy in detail
Buy QQQ, keep holding it, and sell only what you need for monthly spending.
The Nasdaq-100 concentrates on large non-financial growth companies. That concentration can compound quickly when those businesses lead and can also produce long, deep falls when expectations reset.
Can I trust these results?
My evidence-weighted estimate is about 70% that the main effect would persist in a new long market period. That makes the result promising, not dependable enough to treat as a promise.
The direct test covers April 1999 through June 2026. It includes fund distributions, T-bill returns, inflation and the stated trading costs, but it is still one U.S. market record. The longer retirement histories repeat it or link 8–12-year pieces; they test difficult orders, not new historical evidence.
Treat the result as evidence about how the rule behaved, then compare it with simpler alternatives and your own ability to follow it through a bad period.
Methodology details for the nerds
How I ran the return comparison
The test starts with the amount shown on the graph. Each decision uses only information already complete at that month-end. Distributions are reinvested, T-bills earn the published three-month rate, and the calculation charges 0.10% of each risky asset bought or sold.
How I tested retirement withdrawals
The first withdrawal occurs before the first month's return. Spending then rises with U.S. inflation. One panel checks every starting month in order; the other links 5,000 histories from 8-, 10-, and 12-year pieces. A path counts only if it pays every withdrawal and remains above zero.
Data and important limits
The calculation uses adjusted fund returns plus U.S. government T-bill and inflation data. Personal tax, spreads beyond the stated cost, and investor behavior are not included. A real fund can differ from its index because of fees and tracking.
Keep comparing
See where this strategy ranks.
Use this result
See how much you need to retire—and compare what to invest in.
Enter what you have and what you want to spend each month. Compare three portfolios against the same market history. Your financial figures stay in your browser.
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