Scan the plain conclusion here. Open any article for the fair comparison, the evidence and what it does not prove.
Stock trading rules
The trades make money and the rule is not curve-fit, but the money is at work only 4% of the time, so the account grew 6% a year against 16% for QQQ.
Rebalancing
Daily rebalancing lost to holding the same funds after modeled costs. Trading only after a larger drift helped slightly; both rules trailed QQQ.
FIRE calculators
Choose a tool for the decision in front of you: a quick FIRE number, historical survival, a detailed financial plan, or what the portfolio should own.
Retirement planning
See the common 4% starting estimate for several monthly spending levels, then test your amount against three portfolio strategies.
Retirement planning
A common starting estimate is $1.5 million before taxes and other income. A longer retirement or lower starting withdrawal raises the target.
Seasonality
No. The available QQQ history does not show a dependable midterm-autumn pattern: 50% of midterm autumns had a 10% fall, versus 43% of other autumns.
Retirement income
Four percent gives $160,000 in the first year. The usual rule tests a finite retirement—not an endless payment or untouched principal.
Retirement income
$2 million can fund an $80,000 first-year withdrawal under the 4% starting rule. See what decides whether that is enough for your retirement.
Compound growth
At SPY's historical average, a smooth comparison reaches about $6.24 million after 20 years. Reaching $10 million needs 13.5% a year.
Withdrawal rules
$1 million supports a $40,000 first-year withdrawal under the 4% starting rule. See what else decides whether it is enough for you.
Tax-free income
The arithmetic is right. The viral post left out the investment: John Morgan said the money would go into tax-free bonds.
Strategy test 001
A monthly rule used SPY’s past returns to choose between QQQ and cash. It grew more and fell less than always holding QQQ in this 25-year historical backtest, but one period is not enough to choose a retirement strategy.
Strategy test 002
A monthly rule moved between SPY and T-bills. It grew more and fell less than always holding SPY in this 32-year backtest, but its entire advantage came from two crisis periods.
Strategy test 003
SPY grew far faster than inflation in the direct fund history. The retirement test shows how much monthly spending survived when the same record was started and rearranged in different ways.
Strategy test 004
Compare a 90/10 SPY and T-bills portfolio with holding SPY. The cash cushion reduced the worst fall but also reduced long-run growth, and improved the conservative 30-year withdrawal threshold by only 0.1 percentage point.
Strategy test 005
See what happened when a QQQ strategy bought new 12-month highs, moved to T-bills at new lows, and funded regular withdrawals.
Strategy test 006
Compare 90% QQQ and 10% T-bills with holding QQQ, see the growth-versus-protection trade, and test your own retirement.
Strategy test 007
See how QQQ grew after inflation, why its deep falls matter while withdrawing, and test QQQ with your own retirement numbers.
Strategy test 008
See whether adding more 2x QQQ exposure after deeper declines improved recovery, drawdowns, and retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 009
See how a QQQ moving-average strategy changed returns and drawdowns, whether it supported retirement withdrawals, and test it with your own FIRE numbers.
Strategy test 010
See whether keeping up to 12 months of spending in T-bills reduced forced QQQ sales and helped fund retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 011
See whether briefly raising Nasdaq exposure to at most 1.10 times after a deep QQQ fall improved retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 012
See whether changing QQQ exposure after strong and weak 12-month records improved growth, drawdowns, and retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 013
Compare 75% QQQ and 25% SMH with holding QQQ, understand the concentration trade, and test your retirement.
Strategy test 014
See what happened when an SMH strategy bought new 12-month highs, moved to T-bills at new lows, and funded regular withdrawals.
Strategy test 015
Compare an SMH moving-average guard with holding SMH and test whether the smoother path better supported retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 016
See whether changing SMH exposure after strong and weak 12-month records reduced retirement risk without giving up too much growth.
Strategy test 017
See how a rule combining portfolio strain with SPY's recent trend changed SPY, QQQ and T-bill exposure, then test your own plan.
Strategy test 018
See whether a spending-pressure rule that shifts from SPY toward QQQ recovered retirement plans or added too much risk.
Strategy test 019
See whether an SPY return-consistency signal improved an SMH semiconductor strategy and helped support retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 020
Compare an SPY moving-average guard with holding SPY, see when it reduced risk, and test your own retirement numbers.
Strategy test 021
Compare 50% SPY, 25% QQQ and 25% SMH with the same core mix without semiconductors, then test your retirement numbers.
Strategy test 022
See whether building a T-bill spending pot only during stronger SPY periods improved retirement withdrawals.
Strategy test 023
Compare 75% SPY and 25% SMH with holding SPY, see the return and drawdown trade, and test your retirement numbers.
Strategy family
One dip-buying rule, five ways to run it. On its own it grew 11.7% a year with a 7% deepest fall; inside a guarded QQQ holding, 23.6% a year with a 30% fall, in a record that starts in 2004.
Fund distributions
The August payout was estimated as 100% return of capital. That makes it different from a dividend yield or a sustainable spending rate.
Dividend income
At the 2000 high, the dividend produced about $852 for each $1 million invested—not the $40,000 implied by a 4% withdrawal.
Overnight trading
A viral backtest said yes. Our mini test found that the overnight trade made money, but simply holding Micron made far more.
Claim check
No. The post stretched a ten-year hedge-fund record across twenty years, then attributed it to a different public stock screen.
Withdrawal rules
Both figures can be honest. Morningstar's model produces both when its return assumptions and stock allocation change.
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