$2,500 a month starts at 6% a year.
QQQ moving-average strategy: returns and retirement test
Strategy in short: Hold 80% QQQ when the latest completed month-end level is above its 12-month average. Otherwise hold 40% QQQ and 60% T-bills.
Retirement answer: QQQ moving-average guard supported more starting spending than Always QQQ: 4% versus 2.3% a year funded 30 years in at least 95% of both sets of histories. These are historical thresholds, not recommended spending.
Return comparison: Always QQQ made more money in this backtest. QQQ moving-average guard ended with $76,504 and Always QQQ with $79,631.
Growth of $10,000 — logarithmic scale
QQQ moving-average guard had a deepest fall of 47.6%, compared with 81.1% for Always QQQ.
See when the moving average reduced QQQ exposure
The portfolio keeps substantial QQQ exposure in both states, then halves that exposure when QQQ falls below its 12-month average.
The rule reduced exposure during 315 months. Across those months, QQQ compounded to a gain of 697%.
During the lower-exposure months, QQQ rose in 186 months and fell in 129 months. That is where the rule either gave up gains or avoided losses.
QQQ moving-average guard$76,504-47.6% deepest fall
Always QQQ$79,631-81.1% deepest fall
April 2000 through June 2026. Distributions are reinvested. The calculation charges 0.10% of each risky asset bought or sold. There are no withdrawals in this graph. Equal percentage moves take equal vertical space. Past results do not predict future results.
Did the moving-average guard support more monthly spending?
By June 2005, Always QQQ had run out while QQQ moving-average guard still had $185,887.
Avoiding more of the earlier losses left money available to keep paying withdrawals.
Example: You have $500,000 and need $2,500 a month—6% a year.
The same spending then equaled 18.3% a year.
The portfolio had run out of money.
What funded at least 95% of both history tests?
QQQ moving-average guard supported a 4% starting annual withdrawal for 30 years: 304 ordered starts and 4,846 of 5,000 mixed histories funded every withdrawal.
These are historical thresholds, not recommended spending amounts or a promise of future success.
Test if QQQ moving-average guard can fund your early retirement with your own numbers
Enter your portfolio, monthly spending, and how long the money needs to last.
$2,500 a month for 30 years starts at 6.0% of the portfolio each year.
In these backtests, sometimes. Neither strategy funded this early retirement in at least 8 out of 10 histories tested.
315 starting months; the fund's record repeats in order when needed
- QQQ moving-average guard
- 217 funded
- Always QQQ
- 187 funded
5,000 histories built from 8–12-year pieces
- QQQ moving-average guard
- 4,049 funded
- Always QQQ
- 4,242 funded
A path funded the goal only if it paid every inflation-adjusted monthly withdrawal for 30 years. Results use the nearest 0.1 percentage-point starting withdrawal rate. They reuse one 26-year market record and are not a probability about your future.
How the FIRE calculator works
The calculator applies the portfolio value, monthly withdrawal, and number of years you enter. The first withdrawal occurs before the first month's return, and later withdrawals rise with U.S. inflation. A history counts as funded only if it pays every monthly withdrawal for the full period and finishes above zero.
One result begins at each of the 315 months in the fund record and follows that record forward in order, returning to its first month when more months are needed. The other builds 5,000 longer histories from linked 8-, 10-, and 12-year pieces of the same record. The calculation charges 0.10% whenever QQQ is bought or sold and excludes personal tax.
At every repeated or rearranged join, market signals use the real observations that preceded the incoming historical month. Portfolio value, withdrawals, inflation and strategy state continue without resetting.
Strategy in detail
Hold 80% QQQ when the latest completed month-end level is above its 12-month average. Otherwise hold 40% QQQ and 60% T-bills.
Moving-average rules are another form of trend following. They accept delayed exits and missed rebounds in exchange for spending less time fully exposed during persistent declines.
Research has found that market direction can persist for months in many asset classes. See the 2012 time-series momentum study and a longer study across 67 markets. Those broad findings make the idea plausible; they do not validate this exact rule.
Can I trust these results?
My evidence-weighted estimate is about 62% that the main effect would persist in a new long market period. That makes the result plausible, not dependable enough to treat as a promise.
The direct test covers April 2000 through June 2026. It includes fund distributions, T-bill returns, inflation and the stated trading costs, but it is still one U.S. market record. The longer retirement histories repeat it or link 8–12-year pieces; they test difficult orders, not new historical evidence.
Treat the result as evidence about how the rule behaved, then compare it with simpler alternatives and your own ability to follow it through a bad period.
Methodology details for the nerds
How I ran the return comparison
The test starts with the amount shown on the graph. Each decision uses only information already complete at that month-end. Distributions are reinvested, T-bills earn the published three-month rate, and the calculation charges 0.10% of each risky asset bought or sold.
How I tested retirement withdrawals
The first withdrawal occurs before the first month's return. Spending then rises with U.S. inflation. One panel checks every starting month in order; the other links 5,000 histories from 8-, 10-, and 12-year pieces. A path counts only if it pays every withdrawal and remains above zero.
Data and important limits
The calculation uses adjusted fund returns plus U.S. government T-bill and inflation data. Personal tax, spreads beyond the stated cost, and investor behavior are not included. A real fund can differ from its index because of fees and tracking.
Keep comparing
See where this strategy ranks.
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