Financial independence, evidence based

Invest right and never work again

Free tools, strategies and backtests to help you find the best way to achieve financial independence.

02 / Your FIRE plan

Three strategies that best matched your goal in our tests.

Example before you submit

You want $2,500 a month for 30 years. We compared every strategy we’ve tested using that retirement portfolio and spending.

Portfolio at retirement$250,000in today's dollars

You want to spend: $2,500 / month
Starting withdrawal rate: 12.0% a year
Money must last: 30 years

Highest Historical Survival

SPY-guarded QQQ

54% of paths in the tougher test paid every withdrawal and finished with money left.

Highest historical survival result among the 23 strategies you can run without automation, but it remained below 95%.

54% ordered histories · 57% mixed histories

Direct fund history: 2001–2026. Historical stress test, not a forecast.

Median growth: 11.3%Read how it works

Alternative Below 95% Survival

SPY-guarded SMH

50% of paths in the tougher test paid every withdrawal and finished with money left.

No unused strategy reached 95% survival. This was the strongest alternative left.

52% ordered histories · 50% mixed histories

Direct fund history: 2000–2026. Historical stress test, not a forecast.

Read how it works

Alternative Below 90% Survival

Graded SMH

42% of paths in the tougher test paid every withdrawal and finished with money left.

No unused strategy reached 90% survival. This was the strongest alternative left.

55% ordered histories · 42% mixed histories

Direct fund history: 2001–2026. Historical stress test, not a forecast.

Read how it works

None of the 23 strategies you can run without automation reached 95% historical survival at this spending. The highest tested monthly spending that did was $1,792.

Want to compare a different tradeoff?

Explore all 24 strategies

These are historical stress tests, not probabilities or a forecast of your retirement.

01 / Ways in

Begin with what you want to do.

Start here

Build my FIRE plan

Enter what you expect to have at retirement, test the spending you need, and compare three ways to invest.

Use the planner

24 liveCompare 24 tested strategies Two tools livePractise two hard decisions Research libraryRead 40 tested answers Available everywhereTalk through my FIRE goal

03 / Practice

Practise two hard decisions before the next difficult market.

Both tools hide the future until after you make the decision.

Market Timing Challenge

Can you leave—and get back in—in time?

Choose how much to keep invested through a hidden one-, two-, or three-year market period. Interest earned by cash and switching costs count.

Try market timing Event Risk Trainer · 12 lessons

Make the decision before history gives away the answer.

Read evidence as it was known, choose what to redact, and decide what the event should change before the outcome appears.

Practise a crisis

04 / Why trust it

Every conclusion should have a receipt.

The process matters. A visible finished result shows why it is useful.

01
Start with a real question
Something an investor actually needs to decide or understand.
02
Define the test
Set the strategy, comparison and important rules before seeing the answer.
03
Try to break it
Check different periods, costs, simple alternatives and unseen evidence.
04
Publish the honest answer
Show failures, uncertainty and sources—not only the attractive result.

One strategy result. One practical answer. Both with limits attached.

Tested strategy

SPY-guarded QQQ grew more and fell less in the 2001–2026 backtest.

Most of the advantage came from the technology bust and financial crisis. One 25-year period is not enough to prove that the advantage will continue.

Read the strategy test

Practical answer

Does the 4% rule preserve your starting portfolio?

No. Saving 25 times annual spending estimates the first withdrawal. It does not promise that the original principal lasts forever.

$40,000 a year starts with $1 millionRead the answer and its limits

05 / Choose what happens next

Compare your spending goal with the existing research.

Your planner numbers stay in this browser unless you use signed-in saving.

Build my FIRE plan