US midterm years3 of 6 autumns
50%QQQ / Checking the autumn warning
Does QQQ fall before US midterm elections?
No—the history we have does not show a dependable midterm-autumn pattern in QQQ. A fall of at least 10% happened in 3 of 6 completed midterm autumns and 9 of 21 other autumns: 50% versus 43%. The falls were almost the same size on average, too.
The claim you may have seen is that stocks are especially likely to fall in the autumn before a US midterm election. This page checks that claim for QQQ, then asks whether the dates alone gave an investor a useful reason to sell.
A large fall happened in 50% of midterm autumns and 43% of the others.
All other years9 of 21 autumns
43%The two rates are only seven points apart: 50% versus 43%. Only six completed midterm autumns exist in QQQ's history, so one unusual year can move the midterm percentage a lot. The next checks ask whether the falls were unusually deep or unusually tied to these months. They were not.
01 / The size of the falls
The average midterm fall was almost identical to other autumns.
For each year, we found QQQ's highest close between August and November and measured the largest later drop before November ended. The six midterm autumns fell 13.0% on average. The other 21 autumns fell 12.7% on average. Subtracting the two leaves a difference of only 0.3 points.
We then compared the six midterm autumns with every possible group of six autumns in QQQ's history. Nearly half—45.6%—looked equally bad or worse. If the midterm label explained a special danger, that should have been rare. It was not.
02 / The six years behind the average
Three years crossed 10%. Three stayed below it.
We answered two different questions. The large number shows the sharpest August–November drop after an earlier high. The September measure tests the choice a reader faces after hearing the warning: sell then, or stay invested through November. A year can suffer a large drop and still finish higher, as 2002 did.
If held September–November: +22.4%
If held September–November: +12.8%
If held September–November: +16.6%
If held September–November: +6.2%
If held September–November: −8.7%
If held September–November: −1.8%
03 / Were August–November unusually bad?
The autumn window ranked 7th of 12, close to the middle.
We kept the same six midterm years and moved the four-month test around the calendar: January–April, February–May, and so on. August–November ranked 7th of 12, close to the middle. Six other placements were deeper; August–November itself made seven of 12 that were at least this deep.
The same midterm years were often rougher in other parts of the year. Autumn did not stand out as the danger period.
04 / What about this year?
2026 is not part of the answer yet.
The saved prices stop on 1 September 2026, before this autumn is complete. From the first August close to that date, QQQ was up 1.1% and had fallen 3.5% from its August high. Those numbers only describe what had happened by then. They do not tell us what QQQ will do next, so 2026 was excluded from every comparison above.
05 / What this means for an investor
The calendar warning alone is not a tested reason to sell QQQ.
This test did not find a rule for when to sell or when to buy back. From the first September close through the final November close, QQQ gained 7.9% on average and finished higher in 4 of 6 completed midterm autumns. Selling only because the calendar says “midterm autumn” could therefore miss gains as well as avoid a fall.
This was not a complete cash strategy test. Cash interest, tax, and the cost of selling and buying back were not included. A complete comparison would need those items and a fixed rule for when to re-enter QQQ.
This does not mean QQQ cannot fall this autumn or that an investor should hold regardless of risk. It means this particular calendar claim does not supply the missing sell and re-entry decisions. See the separate SPY-guarded QQQ test for an example based on observed market movement rather than a date alone.
The full receipt
Check the sources, rule, and limits.
Where the warning came from
BlackRock and Fidelity discuss weaker or more volatile US midterm years. Citadel Securities discusses stronger September weakness in midterm years. Those sources discuss the broader S&P 500. This page asks the narrower QQQ question and does not claim to retest every broader-market finding.
The exact QQQ rule and comparison
We used adjusted QQQ closing prices, which include distributions and splits. For each completed year since QQQ began trading, we measured the largest decline from an earlier high between the first August close and the final November close. We compared six US midterm-election years with 21 other years. The frozen source study judged whether the midterm falls stood out by comparing average depth with every six-autumn group and by moving the same four-month window around the calendar.
Evidence and checks
The source study is QQQ-MIDTERM-FALL-SEASONALITY-001, frozen at commit a1f4c039. It used adjusted QQQ closing prices through 2026-09-01, checked the full price history against an earlier independent copy, and reconciled every public figure to the saved result. Twenty-seven focused tests and 15,506 independent checks passed.
What the result cannot establish
There are only six completed QQQ midterm autumns and no untouched later group. The rolling four-month windows overlap. The result cannot prove that the true chances are identical or that any future autumn is safe. It only says that the completed QQQ history is too limited and too ordinary to support this specific calendar warning as a dependable exit rule.
This is educational research, not personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell QQQ.
Use this result
See how much you need to retire—and compare what to invest in.
Enter what you have and what you want to spend each month. Compare three portfolios against the same market history. Your financial figures stay in your browser.
Build my free FIRE plan