You chose: Cut back, hold the rest
The most defensible answer that day was to stay put—with a tripwire.
On 23 January, transmission and severe containment were credible warnings. But the WHO had not declared an international emergency, broad markets had barely moved, and financial damage was not yet visible. The careful response was to keep the position while deciding in advance what evidence would change your mind.
What your choice traded
This was proportionate, but early. It reduced the cost if the pathway widened while preserving some exposure if the outbreak stayed contained.
What actually happened
The health warning became financial damage.
The WHO declared a global health emergency one week later. Large outbreaks appeared outside China in February. By 11 March, the bond market was showing distress and yields and oil had fallen to roughly half their starting levels.
Knowing the ending does not make selling immediately “correct.” The useful lesson is that the decision changed when the pathway widened and financial markets began confirming damage.
Try the real exercise
Make all four COVID decisions with the future hidden.
The complete trainer asks for your reason, confidence, tripwire and review date. All twelve lessons are free. No account or email is required. Your answers stay in this browser unless you later choose to save historical lesson progress online.
Continue in the complete free trainerThe organizing idea
Markets price expected financial damage—not how frightening the event sounds.
Probability is only one input. Exposure, severity, duration, policy response, and what prices have already absorbed determine the decision.
How the practice works
Make the decision before you are allowed to know the ending.
Each lesson reveals four dated checkpoints. You record an action, a reason, your confidence, what would change your mind, and when you will look again—before anything later is shown.
- 48 decisions with later facts hidden
- Charts stop at the current checkpoint
- Feedback judges the reasoning, never simulated profit
- Your answers stay on your device unless you enter an email and choose Save progress
Twelve complete lessons
Crises you remember—without the hindsight you have now.
Health scares, bank failures, war, trade, politics, energy and supply chains. The cases differ because frightening news and financial damage are not the same thing.
COVID-19
When a health warning became an economic shutdown
Lehman and AIG
When funding damage became systemic
Mpox
A global alarm without broad economic damage
Brexit
Severe local repricing, smaller global consequences
US debt ceiling
The 2011 standoff and credit downgrade
US government shutdown
A political shock with limited lasting damage
Abqaiq
The weekend oil-supply shock
US–China tariffs
The May 2019 escalation
Ever Given
When duration decided the Suez threat
Russia invades Ukraine
War, energy and financial contagion
Silicon Valley Bank
Failure, contagion and the backstop
Iran and Israel
Direct exchange without sustained contagion
Free to use
All twelve lessons are open to everyone.
Start anywhere and come back whenever you want. No payment, account, access code, or email address is required.
Complete trainer
Free
Your progress and answers are saved automatically in this browser. You can export them, or enter an email and choose Save progress to keep an online copy of the historical lessons.
- All twelve lessons and 48 decisions
- Private live-evidence guide after three core lessons
- Explanations after each completed decision
- No account, payment, or access code
What this is not.
Does it tell me what to buy or sell?
No. It teaches a decision process. It never selects, sizes, authorises, or executes a trade, and gives no personalised advice.
Does it predict the next crisis?
No. Historical cases are practice material, not evidence that the next event will behave the same way.
Where do my answers go?
They stay in your browser by default. If you enter an email and choose Save progress, only historical lesson answers and checkpoint progress are copied online. Imported live evidence and private briefs never are.
Is the complete trainer really free?
Yes. Every lesson and the private live-evidence guide are free. There is no paid tier.