You chose: Cut back, hold the rest
The most defensible answer that day was to stay put—with a tripwire.
On 23 January, transmission and severe containment were credible warnings. But the WHO had not declared an international emergency, broad markets had barely moved, and financial damage was not yet visible. The careful response was to keep the position while deciding in advance what evidence would change your mind.
What your choice traded
This was proportionate, but early. It reduced the cost if the pathway widened while preserving some exposure if the outbreak stayed contained.
What actually happened
The health warning became financial damage.
The WHO declared a global health emergency one week later. Large outbreaks appeared outside China in February. By 11 March, the bond market was showing distress and yields and oil had fallen to roughly half their starting levels.
Knowing the ending does not make selling immediately “correct.” The useful lesson is that the decision changed when the pathway widened and financial markets began confirming damage.
Try the real exercise
Make all four COVID decisions with the future hidden.
The complete free lesson asks for your reason, confidence, tripwire and review date. No account or email. Your answers stay in this browser.
Start the full free lessonThe organizing idea
Markets price expected financial damage—not how frightening the event sounds.
Probability is only one input. Exposure, severity, duration, policy response, and what prices have already absorbed determine the decision.
How the practice works
Make the decision before you are allowed to know the ending.
Each lesson reveals four dated checkpoints. You record an action, a reason, your confidence, what would change your mind, and when you will look again—before anything later is shown.
- 48 decisions with later facts hidden
- Charts stop at the current checkpoint
- Feedback judges the reasoning, never simulated profit
- Your answers remain on your device
Twelve complete lessons
Crises you remember—without the hindsight you have now.
Health scares, bank failures, war, trade, politics, energy and supply chains. The cases differ because frightening news and financial damage are not the same thing.
COVID-19
When a health warning became an economic shutdown
Lehman and AIG
When funding damage became systemic
Mpox
A global alarm without broad economic damage
Brexit
Severe local repricing, smaller global consequences
US debt ceiling
The 2011 standoff and credit downgrade
US government shutdown
A political shock with limited lasting damage
Abqaiq
The weekend oil-supply shock
US–China tariffs
The May 2019 escalation
Ever Given
When duration decided the Suez threat
Russia invades Ukraine
War, energy and financial contagion
Silicon Valley Bank
Failure, contagion and the backstop
Iran and Israel
Direct exchange without sustained contagion
Complete access
One payment. The complete trainer.
This is a finished set of twelve lessons, so it is sold once. Do three lessons; if you would not decide differently next time, ask for your money back within 30 days.
Individual access
$49
One time, in USD · applicable tax added at checkout · founding price, which may rise for later buyers · paid access is currently available only to customers in the United States
- All twelve lessons and 48 decisions
- Private live-evidence guide after three core lessons
- Corrections to the included lessons
- 30-day refund promise
What this is not.
Does it tell me what to buy or sell?
No. It teaches a decision process. It never selects, sizes, authorises, or executes a trade, and gives no personalised advice.
Does it predict the next crisis?
No. Historical cases are practice material, not evidence that the next event will behave the same way.
Where do my answers go?
Nowhere. They stay in your browser. Payment or access can be checked online, but what you write is never sent to us.
Can I try it before paying?
Yes. The free lesson is complete—not a trailer—with four checkpoints, the hidden future, and the same debrief.